Artificial Super Intelligence ($ASI)

Dario Amodei's p(doom) has risen to 25%

1) Reminder: this is NORMAL in AI

2) No, he's not "just creating hype", that's retarded, sorry. He mostly gets hate for admitting this.

3) "Seriously, can you name any other business doing this?

Big Oil: "Yes, we totally ARE wrecking the climate! Want to buy shares?"

Biotech: "Oh, we can totally make doomsday bugs. Please invest."

Nuclear: "Nobody can tell how bad an accident will be. Wanna buy?"

4) THANK YOU @DarioAmodei for answering honestly unlike cowardly @Sama The Suit

Given the progress in federated training, I feel quite confident saying that AGI/ASI can and will be trained on Huawei hardware within 1 year of the US reaching the same milestone. This is good enough. The real question is how many can they make.

If AI improves fast, that makes things worse, but it's not where the central ASI problem comes from.

If your city plans to enslave ultra-smart dragons to plow their fields and roast their coffee, some problems get *worse* if the dragons grow up very quickly. But the core problem is not: "Oh no! What if the huge fire-breathing monsters that could wipe out our city with one terrible breath, that are also each individually much smarter than our whole city put together, that when mature will think at speeds that make any human seem to them like a slow-moving statue, *grow up quickly*? Wouldn't that speed of maturation present a problem?"

If you imagine suddenly finding yourself in a city full of mature dragons, that nonequilibrium situation will then go pear-shaped very quickly. It will go pear-shaped even if you thought you had some clever scheme for controlling those dragons, like giving them a legal system which said that the humans have property rights, such that surely no dragon coalition would dare to suggest an alternate legal system for fear of their own rights being invalidated. (Actual non-straw proposal I hear often.) Even if you plan to cleverly play off the dragons against each other, so that no dragon would dare to breathe fire for fear of other dragons -- when the dragons are fully mature and vastly smarter than you, they will all look at each other and nod and then roast you.

Really the dragon-raising project goes pear-shaped *earlier*. But that part is trajectory-dependent, and so harder to predict in detail in advance. That it goes grim at *some* point is visible from visualizing the final destination if the dragons *didn't* revolt earlier, and realizing it is not a good situation to be in.

To be sure, if dragons grow up very fast, that *is* even worse. It takes an unsolvably hard problem onto an even more unsolvably hard problem. But the speed at which dragons mature, is not the central problem with planning to raise n' enslave dragons to plow your fields and roast your coffee. It's that, whether you raise up one dragon or many, you don't have a dragon; the dragons have you.

ASI is when the waymo can order at the in n out drive through

This week at @billions_ntwk

among other exciting updates

we unveiled our participation in the AI Sovereignty Alliance

this effort brings together some of the most forward thinking onchain builders at the frontier of autonomous agent coordination

From prompts to production: ASI One agents are showing what autonomous creation looks like. The Nano-Banana agent turns simple inputs into styled 3D renders, product shots, and creative edits.

try it yourself today

👽👽👽🛸🛸🛸👀👀👀

AGI and UFOs?

INSANE that the UAP (UFO) Congressional hearings are saying "UAPs are real, they are here, they are not from Earth". And, the public isn't paying attention! Fascinating this is happening in concert with AGI and soon ASI. Correlation? Causation?